Tuesday, December 19, 2006

The Dollar - Sometimes Technicals Just Work

What keeps us technicians faithful to the craft, despite bad calls, satire, ridicule, derision (OK it's not that bad, but the fundies do like to dish it up to us) is that at times, all the planets line up just right and the confluence of factors is so stunning that you just have to trade it. This setup on the Dollar Index has it all.

We have:
* old support becoming resistance
* reaction off the downward sloping trendline
* confluence of fib levels
* evening star candle pattern
* all occurring at pretty well spot on the 83.80 level on the March contract

...and it's taken a whopping off that level today.

To say that I like this setup is an understatement. They don't come any better than this, but that's only half the story. The next bit is the art of the exit... not to mention the small matter of it continuing in the right direction.

The bad news is that it doesn't look good for the dollar... or is that good news? I'm never sure any more in this increasingly Orwellian, bad news is good news world we live in.


SRS Finance said...

Yeah, how does that go? weak dollar = inflation = higher stock prices? Carry traders returning and all that good stuff.

It's no fun when you travel though.

sexy said...