Friday, December 15, 2006

When They Sell Silver...

...they really don't mess around. As it stands at this moment, silver is down >7%.

That is a big move in one day and represents a few dollars under $5,000 PER CONTRACT. Longs will nevertheless be happy with their gains since the October low, but it's still a lot of money to give back. (presuming not liquidating)

Gold has also put in a bearish day, being down a point and three quarters.

It could have a lot to do with the US dollar which has been staging a rather impressive recovery over the last few days. No sign of the dollar doom the bona-fide gold bugs have been getting excited about.

My view on the dollar; if I'm bearish, I'm bearish on all the western currencies, so nil effect in reality. Just the normal turns and round-abouts common in any instrument over time.

3 comments:

Brendan said...

In five years, the dollar has lost 30% of its value vs. the dollar index and 50% of its value vs. gold. Nearly every week there's a news story about some country's central bank expressing the need to "diversify its foreign reserves", which today are overwhelmingly in dollars, into something that isn't depreciating as rapidly.

The countertrends, as in yesterday's FX, gold and silver swoons, are hair-raising. But the direction for the dollar is down.

(Great site. Keep up the good work.)

Avalonian said...

Brendan,

Thanks for the comment!

I actually typed up a reply to your comment two days ago... where did it go? Must have screwed up.

The bull arguments are certainly convincing. But I certainly can't get myself past the "it's just a commodity" thinking. It won't dtop me buying it though if I think it's the right thing.

The next few years will certainly be "interesting".

Cheers

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