Wednesday, December 06, 2006

How To Prove Yourself Wrong About Crude

Proving yourself wrong is a relatively easy thing to do in the commodity markets (or any market for that matter). Simply make a public prediction. lol

The Gods will ensure that said prediction goes spectacularly wrong, particularly when accompanied will self-assured arrogance and self-aggrandizement. Which is why I'm trying a bit of humility and self-deprecation, perhaps this will appease the trading Gods.

Anyway as detailed in the days succeeding the US mid-terms, I'm bullish on oil and remain in a convoluted tangle of option legs which I'm pretty sure is bullish lol. In fact oil is the only market followed by the great unwashed masses (a.k.a. those people who believe all they hear on BubbleVision, a.k.a. the mums and dads) that I'm actually bullish on.

As a further offering, I haven't even put a lot of thought into this and will be short on verbosity. So here goes:

Oil is in a bullish pennant, has bounced of 38% fib retracement level and is set to go to ~$67 before Christmas in a measured move.

That's it.

Trading Gods, do your stuff!

3 comments:

NO DooDahs said...

Wake me up if it closes above 64. I'm seeing resistance there going back to Sept. Also, I did some backtesting on CL and found the 95 and 205 day ema's make for a good strategy on the back-adjusted data; we are bearish now based on continuous contract data from Stockcharts.

Just an opinion, probably wrong. But I am no longer long any oil stocks or ETFs and would actually be short if (1) the stock market showed any sign of weakness or (2)I had finished my research on futures trading.

Avalonian said...

Definite resistance at 64 as you say, but I still like the pattern here and the weak dollar(should it continue southwards)might help.

.... and my inbox is just full of spam about the the coming oil price shock. ;)

Cheers

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