Friday, December 08, 2006

How to Prove Yourself Right About Crude

I have already stated how to prove yourself wrong in trading; simply make a public call and the market Gods will do the rest.

However there is a way to prove yourself right about a call.... well two ways actually.

1/The first method is to aquire a television or radio program, make a plethora of predictions, and then only highlight the winners. This method is already well known and suffers frequent exposes' from on-the-ball bloggers and other citizen journalists. (You know who you are ;-) )

2/The 2nd method requires a little more effort but it's worth it if one wants to attain guru status on the cheap. Make an initial prediction and then change that prediction as events dictate. This way the original call for oil to go to $67 before Christmas, can metamorphose into a call for oil to tank to $47 by Halloween if necessary; claiming that the realized scenario was what was really meant all along. lol

Anyway, lets have a look.

Before we start, lets get one thing clear. I think Fibonacci retracements, candlestick patterns and other technical analysis techniques are all bunkum...

...unless of course, they support my hypothesis. lol. So now we have tweezer bottoms at exactly the 38% fib, we have hammers, spinning tops, the whole shebang. We also have a a breakout of the flag/pennant/whatever in the electronic market early this AM.

Far from changing my mind, so far I'm sticking to the original call. But the Gods will not be pleased with this, so I tip my hat to the $64 resistance, perhaps do some burnt offerings; maybe they will turn a blind eye.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I saw this post on a couple other blogs what do you think?

By Anonymous Tipster
From NewYork, NY, 06/19/2008

It has come to my attention that the oil bubble is going to pop very soon. Information has come to light that demand has been significantly over stated, and has droped further than has been reported. These things will be brought to light at the confrence in Saudi Arabia. Rumor has it the price of oil could drop 40 to 60% iin the next week. The time to sell is now, and you might not lose all your investment.

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