Friday, November 10, 2006

A Slight Glitch in My Crude Oil Hypothesis

It seems that the "International Energy Agency trimmed its 2006 global oil-demand growth forecast, citing lower third-quarter demand from China and some industrialized nations " as reported in Marketwatch today.

This has put a bit of a dampener on all of us who are long Crude with what seems to me to be a veiled projection of an approaching recession. I'm quite prepared to go along with that scenario, but I still see other upward pressures on Crude; not the least of which is the prevailing US foreign policy, either directly or indirectly. I don't think the Democrat win in the mid-terms will change much on that front.

I'll be staying long, and options are cheap enough to put a floor under the price action.

2 comments:

Dan Beisiegel said...

I just wanted to complement you on the great job you are doing with this blog. Best of luck in the future.

Dan

Avalonian said...

Appreciated Dan,

Thanks :)